The State Council recently proposed that the second and third-tier cities whose house prices have risen too quickly should also be included in the scope of purchase restrictions. The list of new rounds of restricted city purchases is expected to open up the "time window" for stable prices.

Restrictions on "expanding capacity" will accelerate the impact on the layout of developers in second and third-tier cities? How to prevent the purchase restriction policy from failing in the multi-party game such as local government? How to seize the window period of the property market "expelient fever" to explore the strategy of the root cause? Around a series of hot issues, a reporter from Xinhua Viewpoint made a follow-up survey.

Restrictions on "expanding" high prices are expected to loosen "a while ago, the most talked about the developer to discuss the topic is 'when to cancel the purchase.' Restrictions really made some developers die." SOHO China Co., Ltd. Chairman Pan Shiyi said.

Disappointing for some developers is that not only will purchases not be cancelled but they will be upgraded.

The executive meeting of the State Council on July 12 pointed out that the rising pressure on housing prices in some cities is still relatively large, and some urban adjustment efforts have been relaxed. The State Council requires that cities that have implemented purchase restriction measures should continue to be strictly enforced, and second- and third-tier cities whose house prices have risen too quickly must also take necessary measures to limit purchases. The relevant authorities are "delineating" the new list of restrictions.

Right now, the second and third tier cities have become "main battlefields" for housing enterprises. Xue Jianxiong, an analyst at China Real Estate Information Group, said: “In the first half of a large-scale developer’s sale, only one is located in the first-tier cities, 54 in the second-tier cities and 33 in the third-tier cities.”

According to data from the World Real Estate Research Department, in recent years, the sales area of ​​first-tier cities has been decreasing in the country. It is the rise in housing prices in the second and third-tier markets that supports the bright performance of major housing companies such as Vanke, Poly, and China Shipping.

“We are concerned that the second- and third-tier cities will also limit purchases, because restrictions on purchases can produce a “quick-frozen” effect in the property market,” said a person in charge of a Hong Kong-owned housing company in Shanghai. According to the data, in the first half of this year, of the 43 cities that had implemented purchase restrictions, the transaction area of ​​33 newly-built commodity houses declined from last year.

"The expansion of the scope of purchase will further reduce the space for developers to make room, including the ability to hold high prices." Some developers are worrying.

According to experts from the China Index Academy, Chen Yu and other experts believe that housing prices in some second and third tier cities have risen rapidly. The first-tier cities have encouraged the transfer of funds after the purchase restriction. “If they are allowed to soar, they will have an adverse impact on overall real estate control.” .

"The real estate industry is getting closer and closer to the bottom," said Su Xuejing, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Real Estate. With the expansion of the scope of purchase, high house prices will be loosened, and the “strategic and falling” regulation goals proposed by some cities at the beginning of the year are expected to be achieved.

However, some experts also reminded us how the actual impact of the new round of purchases will depend on the number of cities that are restricted to purchase and on the seriousness of regulatory accountability.

All parties to the game "restriction order" to guard against the implementation of "water injection"

The reporter's investigation found that for the “restricted purchase order”, the “countermeasures” of the game parties in the property market emerge one after another.

Because restrictions on the purchase of residential projects, many developers proposed "turnover for business" countermeasures. In recent years, Vanke, Poly and other housing companies have increased the proportion of commercial projects. The Wanda Group, which focuses on commercial real estate, saw its revenue increase by nearly 70% year-on-year in the first half of this year. It is expected that this year will become the second housing company that has sold over 100 billion yuan.

Some developers take the "commercial, residential, and mix-up" development approach to bypass the purchase restriction policy. The reporter saw in Wuhan Wanda Mansion, Waterfront International and other commercial real estate sales department, the "SOHO room type" of these real estate launches, dual-use commercial and residential, and investors purchased actively.

Some developers have also changed their "high-end routes", and the sky-high luxury projects have continued to increase. As part of the property of Beijing Diaoyutai No. 7 Yard, the unit price has doubled this year, with a price of RMB 300,000 per square meter.

Some real estate agencies are in violation of the "agent" qualifications. In Beijing, foreigners who have not paid tax and social security up to the stipulated period of time are “restricted purchases”. However, some intermediaries have expressed that they can act on their behalf—“First to find a company to open a five-year certificate, only a 10,000 yuan fee, and then go to the taxation department. Fill up the tax for 5 years. The social guarantee can also be processed in the same way."

In addition to developers and intermediaries, a few local governments also “darkened their positions”.

Due to concerns about the decline in housing turnover affecting economic growth, a few cities have appeared in disguised signs of relaxation of housing purchase measures. According to a real estate expert, some cities in the central region have decided to limit the range of purchases to “small and medium sized commercial housing of less than 90 square meters,” and unlimited purchase of 90 square meters or more. A city in North China quickly released its household registration restrictions after it introduced a purchase restriction policy.

"After years of regulation, real estate prices do not depend on how many policies are issued, but how many policies have been truly implemented." Economist Ma Guangyuan said.

By means of the "fever" window to explore the policy of the property market at the bottom of the decision-making level unshaken determination and continuous deepening of the control, the depth of the property market has been cooling down "probability event." Many people in the industry believe that the "window period" that may arise after the property market "fight off fever" should be implemented to implement the "curative strategy," and the regulation should be led to long-term and institutionalization.

"Restriction of purchase is actually for the property market to eat 'antipyretic drugs'. There is a side effect of the drug." Chen Jie, executive director of Fudan University Housing Policy Research Center, said that restrictions on demand caused by restrictions, developers will slow down the rhythm and development progress, resulting in the market outlook Relatively insufficient supply. Once the purchase restriction is cancelled in the future and demand is released, the supply shortage situation may occur, and the pressure on house prices may be even greater.

To this end, it is necessary to fully assess the "side effects" that may be brought about by the "expansion" of purchase restrictions, leaving room for follow-up policies and accelerating the reform of real estate marketization.

Industry sources pointed out that the current short-term policies such as fundraising, limited-purchase purchase, and purchase restriction are obviously overly dependent on administrative measures. In the future, it is necessary to increase the real estate tax, vacancy tax, and windfall tax adjustment in the areas of holding and selling, and to curb speculation in real estate for a long time.

At the same time, the institutionalization of affordable housing should be accelerated. The Standing Conference of the State Council on July 20 emphasized the guarantee of 10 million sets of land for affordable housing projects this year, and requested that the corresponding work for next year be arranged in advance. Relevant experts believe that housing security cannot be hampered by the rise or fall in housing prices, but should be the government’s long-term responsibility to establish systems of land supply, financing, construction, and distribution as soon as possible to reduce the overall pressure on the property market.

Some local governments are the “weak links” in the regulation of the property market. Accelerating the reform of local “land finances” is also imperative. Statistics show that in 2010, the country’s land transfer payment income was 2.9 trillion yuan, 113% more than the budget. In some places, related income such as land transfer fees already accounted for 60% of local finances.

“Land finance is not reformed, and it is difficult for real housing prices to truly return to rationality.” Many insiders called for the need to curb excessively high land prices, accelerate the reform of the local financial system, and gradually remove the “hotbed” of soaring house prices.

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