On September 29 last year, after the regulation and control in the first half of last year, the state relied on the control of the “State of the Five Points”, which was exactly over a year ago. In the past year, under the regulatory policy, the transaction volume of the property market has gradually declined, which in turn drives price changes. Some experts analyzed that the pace of falling housing prices is expected to accelerate, and the situation of the fourth-quarter price reduction is expected to be established.

Regulating the volume of one-year transactions. Ji Guoming, a senior analyst at the China Index Academy, recalled that after the “National Five”, the property market in the fourth quarter of last year was gradually stabilized and the volume of transactions began to decline significantly since the beginning of the year; in the first half of this year, “ "Spring Fair", at that time a lot of developers said that volume fell 2 to 3%, second-hand housing transaction volume decreased by about 40%; this summer, due to hot weather, trading volume fell further, many developers hope to "golden nine" However, compared with last year's transaction volume in September, the main downtown area fell by about 50%. The “Mid-Autumn Festival” was a small holiday, and the number of sales transactions decreased by 70% year-on-year.

In terms of housing prices, the upward trend has slowed since the end of last year, and house prices have stopped rising in August this year. Since September, many developers have increased their discounts. "House prices are coming down or getting closer," said Guo Yuming.

In the fourth quarter, housing prices feared a full reduction. "October is the developer's last chance. If you can't withdraw funds, it will be very difficult for the year." The vice president of marketing for a branded real estate company said that there are two major expenditures at the end of the year, one is for construction projects, and the other is for Land section. Housing enterprises that have rapidly expanded their land in the past two years have begun to pay their bills this year.

Sun Gang, Senior Analyst Manager at Centaline Real Estate, said that in September, some of the country’s large housing prices were mainly reduced prices in first-tier cities. In October, it is likely to increase its sales efforts in second-tier cities. This undoubtedly raised the threshold for small and medium-sized developers to promote, a few hundred dollars per square meter may not be able to impress buyers, and once the decline is large, even small and medium-sized developers, the impact on the market is too large.

Cao Yuequn, deputy director of the Department of Public Administration at Chongqing University, said that as the regulation progresses, developers’ general liabilities increase, market supply increases, and purchasing power falls short of the three conditions, developers must expect more sales at price changes. In the model, the pace of falling housing prices is expected to accelerate, and the situation of downward adjustment in house prices in the fourth quarter is expected to be established.

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