Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (5)

Source: Civil Aviation Resource Net Expert Author: Xu Xiangdong 2009-04-04 15:00:10 I have two sentences ( 0 )

[ professional classification ] finance and finance [ Article ID ] 15-2009-0078

Fourth, factor analysis

(1) Basic theoretical analysis

1. What is the factor analysis method?

The factor analysis method is based on the relationship between the analysis index and its influencing factors, and quantitatively determines a method for the influence direction and influence degree of each factor on the analysis index. Factor analysis can not only comprehensively analyze the impact of various factors on an economic indicator, but also analyze the impact of a certain factor on economic indicators separately. It is widely used in financial analysis.

2. Method of factor analysis

The factor analysis method mainly includes three methods:

First, the serial replacement method

It is to decompose the analysis indicators into measurable factors, and according to the dependence between the various factors, sequentially replace the reference value (usually the standard value or the planned value) with the comparison value (usually the actual value) of each factor. According to the determination of the impact of various factors on the analysis of indicators.

For example, the relationship between a financial indicator and related factors consists of the following formula: actual indicator: Po=×Bo×Co; standard indicator: Ps=As×Bs×Cs; the total difference between actual and standard is Po-Ps, PG This total difference is also affected by the three factors A, B, and C. Their respective degrees of influence can be calculated by the following formula:

The influence of the change of factor A: (Ao-As) × Bs × Cs;

The influence of the change of B factor; Ao×(Bo-Bs)×Cs;

The influence of the change of C factor: Ao × Bo × (Co-Cs).

Finally, the sum of the influences of the above three factors can be equal to the total difference Po-Ps.

Second, the difference analysis method

It is a simplified form of the chain replacement method, which uses the difference between the comparison value of each factor and the reference value to calculate the influence of each factor on the analysis index.

For example, the total profit of a company is influenced by three factors, and its expression is: total profit = operating profit + investment profit and loss ± net non-operating income and expenditure. When analyzing the profit changes last year and this year, the total profit of this year can be calculated separately. Changes, and the three influencing factors are different from those of last year, so that it can be understood that this year's profit increase or decrease is mainly caused by which of the three factors.

Third, the index decomposition method

For example, the asset profit rate can be decomposed into the product of the asset turnover rate and the sales profit rate. The DuPont analysis is a typical form of the index decomposition method.

Fourth, the basis replacement method

The analytical value is used to replace the standard value, and the influence of each factor on the financial indicator, such as the difference analysis of the standard cost, is determined.

3. Procedures for factor analysis

General procedure using factor analysis

First, identify the indicators that need to be analyzed;

Secondly, determine the factors affecting the indicator and its relationship with the indicator;

Again, calculate the amount by which the impact of each factor is determined.

4. Problems using factor analysis

Attentions when using factor analysis

(1) Pay attention to the correlation of factor decomposition;

(2) the order of factor substitution;

(3) The seriality of sequential substitution, that is, the calculation of each factor change is based on the previous calculation, and the method of serial comparison is used to determine the influence of the factor change;

(4) The hypothesis of the calculation result, the number of influences of the variation of each factor calculated by the chain substitution method will be different due to the order of substitution calculations, that is, the calculation result is only the result under certain assumptions. When using this method, analysts should pay attention to making this assumption a logical assumption and a hypothesis with practical economic significance. Thus, the assumption of the calculation result will not hinder the validity of the analysis.

5, case analysis

Below we use the representative DuPont analysis method in the factor analysis method for case analysis.

DuPont Financial Analysis can explain the causes and trends of changes in indicators and the direction to take action. Let's take a car listed company as an example to illustrate the application of DuPont analysis.

The basic financial data of a listed company is as follows:

Table 1: Unit: 10,000 yuan

year Net profit Sales revenue Total assets Total liabilities Total cost
2005 10284.04 411224.01 306222.94 205677.07 403967.43
2006 12,653.92 757613.81 330580.21 215,659.54 736747.24

(Source: China Securities Journal)

Table 2: The financial ratio of the company from 2005 to 2006 is shown in the following table:

Serial number year 2005 2006
1 Net interest rate 0.097 0.112
2 Equity Multiplier 3.049 2.874
3 Assets and liabilities 0.672 0.652
4 Net asset interest rate 0.032 0.039
5 Sales margin 0.025 0.017
6 Total asset turnover 1.34 2.29

(1) Analysis of the net interest rate of equity

The equity net interest rate indicator is an indicator to measure the ability of an enterprise to use its assets to obtain profits. The net interest rate of equity fully considers the impact of financing methods on the profitability of enterprises. Therefore, the profitability reflected by it is the result of a combination of factors such as business operation ability, financial decision-making and financing methods.

The company's equity interest rate improved to some extent between 2005 and 2006, from 0.097 in 2005 to 0.112 in 2006. Investors of enterprises rely largely on this indicator to determine whether to invest or whether to transfer shares, to examine the performance of the operators and to determine the dividend distribution policy. These indicators are also critical to the company's managers.

Company managers conduct financial analysis to improve financial decisions. They can break the equity net interest rate into equity multipliers and net asset interest rates to find the cause of the problem.

Table 3: Equity Net Interest Rate Analysis Table

Car listed company equity net interest rate = equity multiplier × asset net interest rate

2005, 0.097=3.049×0.032

2006 0.112=2.874×0.039

It can be clearly seen from the decomposition that the change in the net interest rate of the company's equity is the result of the combination of changes in the capital structure (equity multiplier) and changes in the asset utilization effect (asset net interest rate). The company's net asset margin is too low, showing a very poor asset utilization.

(2) Decomposition analysis process:

Net interest rate = net asset interest rate × equity multiplier

2005, 0.097=0.032×3.049

2006 0.112=0.039×2.874

After decomposing, the change in equity net interest rate is due to changes in capital structure (decreased equity multiplier), while asset utilization and cost control have changed (the net asset interest rate has also changed). Then, we continue to break down the net profit margin:

Net asset interest rate = net sales rate × total asset turnover

2005 0.032=0.025×1.34

2006 0.039=0.017×2.29

Through the decomposition, it can be seen that the total asset turnover rate in 2006 has increased, indicating that the utilization of assets has been well controlled, showing a better effect than the previous year, indicating the efficiency of the company's use of its total assets to generate sales revenue. Increasing. The increase in the total asset turnover rate and the decrease in the net profit margin hindered the increase in the net profit margin of the assets. We then decomposed the net profit margin:

Net sales margin = net profit / sales revenue

2005 0.025=10284.04÷411224.01

2006 0.017=12653.92÷757613.81

The company significantly increased its sales revenue in 2006, but the increase in net profit was small. The reason for the analysis was that the cost increased. From Table 1, the total cost increased from 403,967,300 yuan in 2005 to 736,747,400 yuan in 2002. It is roughly equivalent to the increase in sales revenue. The following is a breakdown of all costs:

Total cost = manufacturing cost + sales expense + management fee + financial expense

2005 403967.43=373534.53+10203.05+18667.77+1562.08

2006 736747.24=684559.91+21740.962+25718.20+5026.17

It can be seen from the decomposition that the DuPont analysis method effectively explains the causes and trends of the indicator changes, and points out the direction for taking countermeasures.

In this case, the main reason for the small profit margin is that the total cost is too large. It is precisely because the substantial increase in total costs has led to a small increase in net profit, and a significant increase in sales revenue has caused a decrease in the net profit margin of sales, indicating a decline in the company's sales profitability. The increase in the net asset rate is attributed to the increase in the total asset turnover rate, and the reduction in the net profit margin has played a deterrent role.

As can be seen from Table 4, the declining equity multiplier of auto listed companies indicates that their capital structure changed from 2005 to 2006, and the equity multiplier in 2006 decreased from 2005. The smaller the equity multiplier, the lower the debt level of the enterprise, the stronger the ability to repay debt, and the lower the financial risk. This indicator also reflects the impact of financial leverage on profit levels. Financial leverage has both positive and negative effects. In a year with better returns, it can increase the potential compensation that shareholders receive, but shareholders must bear the risks caused by the increase in liabilities; in the year of poor earnings, the potential returns of shareholders may be reduced. The company's equity multiplier has been between 2 and 5, that is, the debt ratio is between 50% and 80%, which is a radical strategic enterprise. Managers should accurately grasp the environment in which the company is located, accurately predict profits, and reasonably control the risks posed by liabilities.

Therefore, for the listed companies of automobiles, the most important thing at present is to strive to reduce various costs and control the cost. At the same time, we must maintain our high total asset turnover. In this way, the profit margin of sales can be improved, and the net profit margin of the assets can be greatly improved.

In summary, the DuPont analysis method focuses on the net interest rate of the equity, and comprehensively links the sales results and asset operation status of the enterprise in a certain period, decomposes at different levels, and gradually deepens to form a complete analysis system. It can better help managers to find problems in the financial and operational management of enterprises, and can provide very valuable information for improving business management. Therefore, it is widely recognized and widely used in practical work.

But DuPont analysis is a kind of financial analysis method after all. As a comprehensive analysis method, it does not exclude other financial analysis methods. On the contrary, combined with other analytical methods, it can not only make up for its own defects and shortcomings, but also make up for the shortcomings of other methods, making the analysis results more complete and scientific. For example, based on DuPont analysis, combined with special analysis, some follow-up analysis will provide a deeper and more detailed analysis of the relevant issues; combined with comparative analysis and trend analysis, the results of DuPont analysis in different periods will be compared and trended to form Dynamic analysis, find out the laws of financial changes, provide basis for forecasting and decision-making; or combine with some enterprise financial risk analysis methods to carry out necessary risk analysis and provide evidence for managers, so this combination is also the essence of DuPont analysis itself. The need for development.

(II) Analysis of airport factors

Above we expounded the basic theory of factor analysis. Below we use the DuPont analysis method in the factor decomposition method to analyze the financial data of the four airports of Guangzhou Airport, Shanghai Airport, Xiamen Airport and Shenzhen Airport in 2006.

1. Guangzhou Airport

It can be seen from the DuPont analysis chart:

(1) The airport has a large amount of fixed assets, so its total return on assets and total assets turnover are relatively low compared to other industries;

(2) The main business cost accounts for a large proportion of the total cost, mainly because the labor cost is the main cost driver of the airport;

(3) Accounts receivable accounted for a relatively large proportion of current assets, mainly caused by the arrears of airport service fees by airlines such as Hainan Airlines and China Southern Airlines.

2. Shanghai Airport

It can be seen from the DuPont analysis chart:

(1) The airport has a large amount of fixed assets, so its total return on assets and total assets turnover are relatively low compared to other industries;

(2) The profit margin of the main business ranked first among the airport-listed companies, reaching 51%, mainly because the rapid development of the airport freight business was the main reason for the rapid growth of airport profits;

(3) Accounts receivable accounted for a relatively large proportion of current assets, mainly due to airlines defaulting on airport service fees.

3. Xiamen Airport

It can be seen from the DuPont analysis chart:

(1) The airport has a large amount of fixed assets, so the total asset turnover rate is relatively low compared to other industries;

(2) The main business cost accounts for a large proportion of the total cost, mainly because the labor cost is the main cost driver of the airport;

(3) Accounts receivable accounted for a relatively large proportion of current assets, mainly due to airlines defaulting on airport service fees; short-term investments accounted for a relatively large proportion of current assets, mainly caused by share brokers.

4. Shenzhen Airport

It can be seen from the DuPont analysis chart:

(1) The airport has a large amount of fixed assets, so its total asset turnover rate is relatively low compared to other industries;

(2) The main business cost accounts for a large proportion of the total cost, mainly because the labor cost is the main cost driver of the airport;

(3) Monetary funds account for a relatively large proportion of current assets, mainly because these funds are deposited in large quantities in banks as restricted deposits.

Analysis conclusion:

(1) Each listed airport has a large amount of fixed assets. Therefore, compared with other industries, the total return on assets and the turnover rate of total assets of each listed airport are relatively low;

(2) The main business cost of each listed airport accounts for a large proportion of the total cost, mainly because the labor cost is the main cost driver of the airport;

(3) Accounts receivable of listed airports account for a relatively large proportion of current assets, mainly caused by airlines defaulting on airport service fees.

III. Institutional research

I. Analysis of the situation of Guangzhou Airport

(1) Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd.

1. Analysis of main income

(1) Aviation service income

Baiyun Airport's aviation services business includes aircraft take-off and landing services, passenger integrated services, security inspection services and aviation ground services. Among them, aircraft landing and landing income is mainly related to aircraft movements, aircraft structure and airline nationality; passenger comprehensive service and safety inspection service income is mainly related to passenger throughput; aviation ground service and specific aviation ground service content provided Related to quantity.

We predict that the model institutions of Baiyun Airport will remain basically unchanged in the next 2-3 years, while the proportion of take-off and landing of foreign airlines will slightly increase. In terms of ground services, the market share division between Baiyun Airport and China Southern Airlines will remain basically stable, and the service content will basically maintain the existing situation. Therefore, the increase in ground service revenue is basically consistent with the increase in landings.

(2) Rental business income

Baiyun Airport's leasing business income mainly includes airport office space and facility leasing (provided to airlines) income and airport business premises leasing income. Among them, the airport office space and facility leasing business have basically reached a relatively saturated state with the Baiyun Airport put into use for more than two years. Therefore, the room for growth is relatively small. In terms of airport business premises leasing business, here we first introduce the airport business model of Baiyun Airport. The airport business operations of Baiyun Airport are different from those of other domestic airports (basically all outsourced by franchise). A considerable part of it is operated by Baiyun Airport's own subsidiaries; the other part is leased to other market entities; the commercial area of ​​self-employment and rental is basically half. The income of the self-operating part is reflected in the company's profit and loss statement as commercial retail income, while the rental part is reflected in the rental income.

When the new Baiyun Airport was first put into use, the initial commercial area was 16,000 square meters. Later, the company found that the business area could be increased in the isolation area. At the same time, passengers are more willing to spend in the isolation area. Some, therefore, gradually increase the commercial area in the isolation zone, especially in the corridor. At present, the commercial area of ​​Baiyun Airport has increased to nearly 20,000 square meters.

Judging from the business content of commercial area, it mainly includes retail and catering. Among them, the rent level of retail area is relatively high.

From the general idea of ​​the commercial area management of the airport, the current thinking of Baiyun Airport is to “close to the market demand and stimulate the city.

Field development. Previously, Baiyun Airport's business has been positioned as a high-end individualized supplier, but after a period of operation, there is a certain degree of disconnect between the airport business and the actual demand of the market. Currently, in order to expand In the market demand of airport business, the airport is guiding the settled merchants to gradually establish an airport commercial system that “accommodates multiple levels of demand” by appropriately reducing the rent level.

In addition, Baiyun Airport Business has obvious defects in process design. The main performance is that the building structure of the new Baiyun Airport is divided into three floors. Outside the quarantine area, the third floor is the departure hall, the second floor is the airport commercial area, and the first floor is the arrival hall. Such a structural design of the building leads to a unreasonable process design, which makes the shopping and other forms of consumption a certain inconvenience when the passenger passes through the airport, which affects the effective passenger flow of the airport business to a considerable extent. by

(3) Advertising business income

The advertising business of Baiyun Airport is mainly operated by Baiyun International Advertising Co., Ltd., which holds 75% of the company. Judging from the company's annual report data, the company's advertising business has been in a steady growth trend (except for the year-on-year increase in 2005 due to the relocation to the new airport in 2004).

Figure 2: Advertising business income of Baiyun Airport (unit: million)

We predict that the company's advertising business revenue growth will gradually accelerate in 2007-2008, and will continue to maintain steady growth in each subsequent year. The main reason is that due to government policy reasons, Baiyun Airport

There have been no outdoor advertising so far, and this situation is likely to change in the second half of 2007. In the next two years, the company's outdoor advertising business will see a very significant growth, which in turn will drive the overall income of advertising. After the outdoor advertising business is launched, it will generate 2,500 and 60 million yuan of outdoor advertising revenue in 2007 and 2008 respectively.

2. Freight business situation

(1) Existing freight business

The main business of Baiyun Airport involving air cargo business is two shareholding companies, namely, Guangzhou Baiyun International Logistics Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Air Cargo Terminal Co., Ltd., which hold 29% of the shares and 30% of the shares. Since the above two companies are all equity-operated, they should mainly be represented as investment income in the company's income statement. However, since Baiyun Airport and the controlling companies of the two companies, China Southern Airlines, have many different views on the overall framework and specific business strategies of the two companies. So far, the two companies have not yet officially handled the formalities. Opening formalities (of which Guangzhou Air Cargo Co., Ltd. was incorporated in August 2004 and has been officially completed). At present, the cargo transportation business of Baiyun Airport is mainly operated by Baiyun Airport Aviation Service Branch. When it comes to the cargo station business, it mainly rents the venue and other facilities of Guangzhou Air Cargo Terminal Co., Ltd. temporarily.

We believe that the contradiction between Baiyun Airport and China Southern Airlines in the problem of cargo terminals and freight companies will largely hinder the development of air cargo business at Baiyun Airport. This business can only turn around after these contradictions have been resolved.

(2) Proposed neutral cargo station

As the contradiction between the two airlines and the two existing freight forwarding companies has not been resolved for a long time, Baiyun Airport is currently stepping up the construction of a neutral cargo station with a total area of ​​220,000 square meters (the main building covers an area of ​​80,000 square meters). The square meter and the auxiliary building covers an area of ​​140,000 square meters. It is expected to be officially built and put into use in the first half of 2008. It is estimated that the total investment amount of the neutral cargo station is 550 million yuan, and the annual cargo handling capacity is 520,000 tons.

In terms of production capacity, the future use of neutral cargo stations will significantly improve the cargo handling capacity of Baiyun Airport; however, we believe that the use of neutral cargo stations is not a wise move. First, the new cargo station facilities have been put into use in the case that the original cargo stations have not been fully utilized, which greatly expands the supply of airport cargo capacity, which is likely to cause overcapacity and will have a negative impact on the cargo station charging level. Second, it will The direct competition of the Southern Airlines further intensifies the original contradictions, which is not conducive to the cooperation between the two parties in various businesses. Third, from the business model, the airport management authorities should mainly adopt the franchise right for each extended business. So that they can concentrate more energy on the professional management of the airport. Excessive participation in specific business management details will make the airport busy, and it will make the airport personnel size and other issues more and more difficult to control.

(3) Details of the FEDEX project

In July 2005, Baiyun Airport Group and FEDEX signed a framework agreement on the establishment of the FEDEX Asia-Pacific Transit Center at Baiyun Airport. In the long run, the signing of this agreement is very beneficial to the development of the aviation logistics industry and even the aviation economy of Baiyun Airport.

3. Cost and expense analysis

(1) Labor cost analysis

According to the company's 2006 annual report, as of the end of 2006, the company had 2,173 full-time employees, 1085 recruiters, 5,707 temporary workers, and 47 retired employees who needed to bear the expenses, totaling 9012.

Compared with Shanghai Airport and Shenzhen Airport, the number of employees at Baiyun Airport is significantly higher. The main reason is that Baiyun Airport is in a labor-intensive business such as airport business, ground service, advertising, and parking lots.

At present, the company does not intend to change the existing business model. Therefore, the number of employees cannot be significantly reduced in the short term; however, the company has recognized the seriousness of this problem and is taking measures to solve it. The target is only the number of personnel. Less or not increase. From the fact that the number of employees in 2005 was 9,180 and the number dropped to 9012 in 2006, the company's measures have achieved certain results.

We believe that in the long run, the significant savings in the company's labor costs will depend on the transformation of the company's business model. If there is no change, with the expansion of the company's business scale, especially the commissioning of projects such as neutral cargo stations, the huge burden of personnel will still be difficult to avoid.

(2) Analysis of operating expenses

In terms of operating expenses, Baiyun Airport is also very different from Shanghai Airport and Shenzhen Airport. Shanghai Airport and Shenzhen Airport have no operating expenses, while Baiyun Airport’s operating expenses in 2006 accounted for 5.16% of the main revenue.

The high operating expenses of Baiyun Airport are still derived from its business model, that is, it is involved in airport commercial retail, advertising and other aviation extension services. The cost of inventory for the commercial retail business is included in the operating cost item in the consolidated statement. We believe that in the absence of changes in the business model of Baiyun Airport, the above situation will not change significantly; at most, the proportion is reduced.

(3) Analysis of management expenses

In 2006, the management fee of Baiyun Airport reached 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.83%, significantly exceeding the growth rate of the main income of 12.12%. The main reason for the sharp increase in corporate management expenses was the significant increase in labor costs and office expenses.

According to the communication with the company, it is mainly because the management subsidiaries such as airport commercial retail, advertising and hotels have caused a significant increase in management expenses for the expansion of business. The company's goal is still to control the increase in costs, making it increase less than the increase in main income.

(4) Analysis of financial expenses

In 2006, the financial expenses of Baiyun Airport reached 153 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.34%. The main reason is that after June 2005, the bank loans increased in order to supplement the working capital and pay for the new airport terminal.

According to our estimates, the company's interest-bearing liabilities at the end of 2004, 2005 and 2006 were 0, 29.28 and 263 million yuan respectively. Based on our forecast of the company's major capital expenditures in the future (the acquisition of two runways in 2007, the completion of the neutral orbital station in 08 or 09, the third runway in 10 years) and the cash flow from operating activities, we predict that At the end of 2007-2010, the company's interest-bearing liabilities were 20.75, 17.02, 25.52 and 2.202 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding financial expenses for 2007-2010 were 1.2, 1.05, 1.31 and 0.72 billion respectively.

4. Profit forecast

Based on the above analysis, we predict that the EPS of Baiyun Airport in 2007-09 will be 0.38, 0.56 and 0.67 yuan respectively.

(II) Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.

1. Comparison - comparing the current situation and gap between the Capital Airport and Baiyun Airport

The reason for choosing the Capital Airport to compare with Baiyun Airport is that Baiyun’s aviation revenue structure and infrastructure conditions are very close to the Capital Airport and the comparability is high. In terms of income, the proportion of aviation revenues of the two is similar, which also includes airport construction fees. The aviation revenue of integrated single aircraft is basically similar. In terms of infrastructure, after the expansion of the East and West Finger Gallery, Baiyun’s throughput will reach about 37 million, which is equivalent to the capacity of the Capital Airport. At present, the Capital Airport is in a state of basic saturation, and its throughput can be used as a reference for the saturated throughput of Baiyun Airport.

Secondly, the Capital Airport continues to explore the operation and management of the airport. Especially in the non-aviation business, from the lease to the self-operated to the franchise, the profitability is gradually improved. Its operation and management have a certain reference for the future development of Baiyun.

By comparison, we can see that Baiyun Airport has the same throughput capacity as the Capital Airport. The current throughput is 60% of the Capital Airport. Therefore, we believe that the market does not price the potential throughput of Baiyun Airport. At present, the market value of Baiyun Airport is only 47% of the Capital Airport. According to our forecast, Baiyun Airport will be fully loaded in 2010. If it is consistent with the capital airport market value at that time, according to the 8% discount rate, the current Baiyun Airport equity value is 19.1 billion, corresponding to the price per share of 16.6 yuan.

(1) Comparison of infrastructure and saturation

The infrastructure capacity of Baiyun Airport after the expansion of the East-West Gateway is similar to that of the Capital Airport. The current business volume is about 60% of the Capital Airport. Considering that the Capital Airport is almost saturated, the new Phase 3 expansion project will be put into use in 2008. It can be assumed that the current utilization rate of Baiyun Airport is 60%.

The infrastructure investment and handling capacity of the Capital Airport is very close to that of Baiyun Airport.

At present, the business volume of Baiyun Airport is only about 60% of the capital airport.

(2) Income comparison

We use the published 2006 mid-year report to compare the income, cost and profitability of Baiyun Airport and Capital Airport. In terms of aviation revenue, the two are basically close. Baiyun’s single-seat aviation revenue is 12% lower than that of the Capital Airport. This is mainly Due to the higher proportion of foreign airlines and wide-body aircraft in the Capital Airport, it can be seen that from 2004 to 2006, the single-income revenue of the Capital Airport was on the rise.

In terms of non-aviation income, we also provided data for 2004 and 2002 due to the large changes in revenues after the Capital Airport adopted the franchise method in 2005. Before 2002, the non-aviation operations of the Capital Airport, such as retail and catering, were leased. After 2002, the Capital Airport took over these businesses, which is similar to the current situation of Baiyun Airport.

Comparison of income and profitability of Baiyun Airport and Capital Airport Unit: million

Comparison table of income ratio between Baiyun Airport and Capital Airport

(3) Comparison of cost and profitability

The total investment of Baiyun Airport's renovation and expansion project is 980 million yuan, which will be gradually put into use at the end of 2007. Considering the investment in the expansion and expansion project, plus the 2 billion investment required to acquire the runway assets, the total assets of Baiyun Airport are around 8.5 billion, which is very close to the 8.3 billion in the Capital Airport. The depreciation cost of both is equivalent.

In terms of operating costs, we believe that there should be no significant gap in the operating costs of the aviation business. In terms of non-aviation business, in 2004, Capital Airport took over the operations of the airport's shops and catering businesses. As the revenue increased, the number of personnel and related costs increased significantly, and the profitability decreased significantly. In 2004, EBITDA Margin only It is 54%, which is 5 percentage points lower than in 2002. Since 2005, Capital Airport has begun to explore the franchise mode, and its profitability has gradually recovered. By the middle of 2006, the franchise business was fully promoted, and the company's EBITDA Margin reached 72%. This process of business change has considerable reference for Baiyun Airport.

We believe that although Baiyun is still unable to reach the current level of operation of the Capital Airport, after two years of efforts, by 2008, the EBITDA Margin of Baiyun has reached the level of the Capital Airport in 2004. There is considerable possibility. We will follow this principle in the following assumptions about the improvement of the company's cost control.

Comparison of EBITDA Margin between Capital Airport and Baiyun Airport

(4) Comparison of market value

The current total market value (including equity value and liability value) of Baiyun Airport is only 47% of the capital airport. If the business volume reaches the current level of the capital airport by 2010, if the market value level can be consistent, then 8% According to the discount rate calculation, the current equity value of Baiyun Airport is 19.1 billion, corresponding to a price of 16.6 yuan per share.

Comparison of market value between Baiyun Airport and Capital Airport

2. Transformation - the next two years will enter the development period from the adaptation period of the transition

(1) Stable in the Pearl River Delta share in the past year

It is undeniable that the airport industry in the Pearl River Delta region has more intense competition than other regions. From the data point of view, Baiyun and Shenzhen Airport are eroding the market share of the Hong Kong market, especially in the freight market.

The passenger market share of the passenger transport market is relatively stable. In 2005, Baiyun gained a percentage point increase due to the investment of the new airport. Corresponding to the drop of 1 percentage point of the Hong Kong airport, Baiyun was stable in 2006, and Shenzhen Airport received a 1% share of Hong Kong. This change is more indicative of the lack of competitive advantage after the investment of Baiyun New Airport and the failure to win more intermediate resources.

In terms of freight transportation, Shenzhen Airport showed obvious competitiveness and its share increased steadily. Especially in 2006, with the launch of Jade Airlines, the market share increased by 3 percentage points. At present, the Shenzhen Municipal Government has introduced a subsidy policy on air cargo, which stipulates that a certain amount of subsidies for all cargo planes registered in Shenzhen will receive a certain amount of subsidy from the government, indicating the obvious intention of the Shenzhen Municipal Government to support Shenzhen Airport to strengthen air cargo. In the future, the fierce aviation competition in the Pearl River Delta will continue. The entry of Baiyun Airport by FeDex can effectively improve the coverage of international route networks and greatly enhance the competitiveness, but it still needs continuous efforts in the competition of the freight market.

In the past two years, Baiyun Airport’s market share in the Pearl River Delta has remained stable.

(2) Business development plan under development

Before the transition of Baiyun, the business was saturated for many years, and the benefits were good while the development space was limited. It can be understood that in this state, managers need almost no consideration of the problems of operation and development. In August 2004, Baiyun completed the relocation of the new airport. In the face of an increase in the size of nearly four times, most of the equipment is at the most advanced airport in Asia. The original management capability has been severely challenged. It is placed on adapting and ensuring the smooth operation of various businesses, and has little regard for refined management, business development and business model reform. After two years of exploration and integration, with the arrival of the new management, Baiyun Airport has established three business strategies of “Baiyun Qihang, Baiyun Transit and Baiyun Logistics”, and the operation of the airport is entering a new stage.

1 Strengthen cooperation with China Southern Airlines to highlight the status of Baiyun Hub

In January 2007, Baiyun Airport, China Southern Airlines and the Central South Administration jointly held a meeting to communicate the construction of China Southern's pivotal routes at Baiyun Airport, and signed relevant framework agreements, striving to increase the number of movements of China Southern Airlines in Baiyun by 30% in 2007. At present, the cooperation between the two parties has entered the operational level.

On February 13, 2007, China Southern Airlines announced that it will open 10 international routes originating from Guangzhou during the year, and fly to 8 Asian countries including Japan, India, United Arab Emirates and Laos, and 2 African countries in Nigeria and Angola. As of February 2007, China Southern Airlines has issued 22 international and regional regular routes in Guangzhou. With the opening of ten new international routes, the number of navigation routes for Guangzhou originating international routes will increase from the current 18 to 26, an increase of nearly 50%. The frequency of international flights per week increased from 136 to 182, an increase of 33.8%. At the same time, China Southern said that by the end of 2007, it will form a five-peak structure centered on Guangzhou, densely connected to the country, radiating Asia, connecting Los Angeles, Amsterdam, Paris, Sydney, Lagos and other major cities and regions in Europe, America and Australia. In terms of capacity investment, China Southern Airlines will continue to increase the capacity of the Guangzhou market this year. By the end of the year, the aircraft volume plan will increase to 68.

Although it is impossible to determine whether China Southern's goal of increasing the number of flights by 30% can be successfully achieved in 2007, at present, the progress is at least smooth.

2 New regional navigation flight procedures will facilitate the expansion of air resources

In terms of air route management, from January 18, 2007, Baiyun Airport officially implemented the Regional Navigation Flight Procedure (RNAV) as the first pilot airport of the Civil Aviation Administration. For airlines, the implementation of the RNAV flight program can obtain more direct flights, the route of the aircraft entering and leaving the airport will be significantly shortened, and the flight time will be reduced, thus saving a considerable fuel cost. At the same time, the implementation of the RNAV flight procedure can make the route more accurate, increase the security margin, and increase the airspace capacity, which is equivalent to providing more airspace resources. We believe that Baiyun Airport's improvement in airspace resources, ground facilities resources and services will be able to attract more airlines to conduct business. Even if the cooperation objectives with China Southern Airlines are not fully achieved, the filling of other airlines will also make the airport business. The amount has been improved.

3 Development opportunities brought about by the saturation of Shenzhen Airport business volume

Another positive factor is that the throughput of competitor Shenzhen Airport is close to saturation, which has given Baiyun's passenger growth more opportunities. From the data of January 2007, although this year’s Spring Festival is in January, Shenzhen

In the immigrant cities, the growth of passenger traffic in the Spring Festival is lower than that in Guangzhou.另有数据显示2月份春运黄金周期间白云机场共起降航班5323架次,接送旅客63.8万人次,分别比去年同期增长13.6%和20%,单日最高起降航班849架次、接送旅客11.5万人次,与去年单日旅客最高峰(正月初六)的9.4万人次相比,增幅达到22.4%。

07年1月,白云机场的客运增长速度超过深圳统计表

④客运业务增长率预测

总体来说,我们认为07年、08年的白云机场的客运业务发展将走上良性循环的轨道,保守假设07年、08年的增长率可以达到11%和15%,而如果南航的枢纽化建设取得良好效果,07年内航班增长量达到30%,则机场2008年的业务量增速将可以达到22%左右。2009-2010年,考虑亚运会等因素,我们假设复合增长为12%,则到2010年左右,白云机场的产能将可能达到饱和。

客运业务增长率假设对比表

⑤广告业务可能取得突破

过去由于广州市政府的限制,白云机场没有开展户外广告业务,目前这个限制已经取消,集团公司正在就广告业务开展前期的准备工作,有望在2007年下半年获得收益。初步估计,新增的户外广告业务可以贡献年收入8000万左右。

(3)成本控制有望取得成效

正如前文所描述,白云机场目前的EBITDA Margin比首都机场2004年的低谷期还低7个百分点左右,成本控制成为新任管理层的重要任务之一。按照管理层的意图,07年将致力与将成本控制在目前的水平上。

从机场经营的特征来看,折旧成本基本保持稳定,水电费、人工等运营成本则跟随业务量有所增长,增长率低于业务量的增长。而对白云机场来说,由于人员成本显著偏高,通过有效控制,未来2年人工成本保持稳定的可能性较大。其他营运成本,我们则假设跟随收入同步增长。这比管理层的设定目标更为保守。

白云机场的员工成本显著高于国内其他机场的对比表

(4)基于以上因素的未来2年盈利预测

①航空业务收入

如我们前文对业务拓展计划的分析,我们认为07-08年,公司航空客运业务的拓展将有所收获,保守假设07、08年的增长将分别达到11%、15%,乐观假设08年增长可以达到22%。

②货运业务收入

白云机场的货运业务体现为货运代理费,其中国内货物的定价为0.2~0.25元/公斤,国际货物的定价为0.80~1元/公斤。2006年,公司货站完成国内货运量18万吨,国际货运量7万吨,占整个白云机场的份额为47%和35%,同比增长分别为12%和45%,目前新开航的所有国际航班都交由机场货站代理,未来在白云机场的份额将进一步提升。07年已经有的航班增加计划包括:3月份美西北航空公司航班由每周4班增加到每周7班,俄罗斯航空开航,全日空增加名古屋和东京航线,下半年民营寰宇航空计划以广州为基地开一架757全货机,预料未来2年国际货运量可以保持30%以上的增速,但是由于基数较小,对盈利贡献并不明显。

代理业务收入增长假设

③广告收入

广告业务将于下半年开展,07、08年分别贡献收入3000和8000万。

④租赁、代理(除货运代理之外)、地面运输、配餐等收入直接与航空业务相关,假设其增速跟随起降架次的增速。

⑤零售、餐饮以及其他延伸服务收入保持稳定。

⑥假设07年下半年完成跑道资产收购和增发

收入预测表

(5)成本以及费用预测假设

①折旧:2007年末,中性货站和指廊扩建投入,合计增加固定资产15亿,综合折旧率3%。

②人工成本:07年保持不变,08年考虑业务量增长,增加5%。

③2008年,考虑收购跑道资产带来的新增折旧和减少成本。

④EBITDA Margin:每年增加2个百分点,到2008年,考虑收购资产达到54%,与首都机场04年水平相一致(不考虑收购资产为51%)。

成本预测表

(6)财务费用

未来两年公司资本支出计划包括扩建东西指廊投资9.4亿,建设中性货站投资4.3亿,收购跑道资产20.3亿。公司计划增发不超过1.5亿股完成跑道收购。据此我们对公司未来的财务费用情况匡算如下。

财务费用测算单位:百万

(7)盈利预测结果

综合以上假设,考虑2007年中进行增发收购资产,公司07、08年的每股收益分别为0.37和0.59元,如果07年与南航的枢纽化建设取得良好成效,08年的业绩更有望达到0.64元。而如果管理层关于将营运成本控制在与06年基本持平的目标如果能够得以实现的话,07年业绩将有望达到0.40元。

盈利预测表单位:百万

3、未来-09年之后货运以及非航业务带来的增长空间

如前文所描述,到2009~2010年,白云机场的基础设施已经逐步接近饱和,但是由于FeDex的入驻将使得跑道在夜间得以利用,同时白云机场提供了目前国内最大的机场商业面积,09年之后,广州地铁将直通机场,这或将为机场商业发展带来新的机遇。

(1)Fedex入驻带来货运业务的巨大发展空间

2007年1月16日上午,白云机场FeDex亚太转运中心正式动工,项目位于机场东跑道东侧,占地面积2451亩,总投资约18.3亿元人民币,按照满足2020年日均快件吞吐量17.9万件、日均分拣量12.5万件的需求进行设计,高峰小时的分拣能力为27,000件,预计于2008年10月建成投产。转运中心顺利迁入后,首批计划安排20架全货机停放在白云机场,机队数量等于目前国内全货机的总和,每周约有150余架次货运航班起降,货运量可达1.2万至1.5万吨。

①新增起降费至少在1亿以上

Fedex的入驻,首先会给公司带来货机起降收入,按照FeDex的运营模式,货机将在晚上10:30之后逐步抵港,早上4:30左右离港,正好利用跑道的夜航时间,可以有效提升跑道资产的利用率。假设全部飞机为MD-11全货机,最大起飞全重为280吨,根据民航总局对国外航空公司的收费标准规定,一个架次正常的起降费在2.1万左右,则全年的起降费在1.6亿左右,另外还可以收取最高不超过10%的夜航附加费。目前我们尚不了解机场会寄予FeDex什么样的优惠,不过即使折扣在6折左右,也可以获得1亿以上的新增起降费。

②国际航线网络完善带来的货流积聚效应

Fedex入驻白云机场带来的更重要的效益是国际航线网络的完善带来的物流积聚效应。数据显示,Fedex现在的亚太转运中心所在地,菲律宾苏比克湾原来只是美军废弃的军事基地,由于FeDex的落户,4年半的时间新增了300多家合资企业,总投资额2.6亿美金。Fedex入驻的当年,苏比克的出口额从1994年的2400万美金增加到1.74亿,到2001年增加到了530亿美元,1995年的产值大概是2000多万美元,到了2001年产值已增加到10亿美元,物流集聚效应十分明显。

白云机场所处的珠三角的航空货运市场总量约有500万吨,其中大部分份额在香港机场,而香港机场最重要的优势是密集的国际航线。因此Fedex的入驻将极大提升白云机场的货运竞争能力,预计在2009年之后,白云国际货物的增长率将至少保持在25%以上。到2010年,机场国际货物代理量有望达到30万吨,可贡献收入3亿元。

(2)充足的商业面积带来的非航业务发展空间

白云机场候机楼采用4层设计,底层全部作为商业用地,是国内提供商业面积最大的机场。共有商业面积4.4万平米,比首都机场高出70%,是浦东机场的6倍左右,从数据上看,由于管理能力的欠缺,机场合计的租金收入仅为1.4亿左右,是首都机场的70%,更不及浦东机场的1/3。事实上白云机场客流量与浦东机场接近,商业价值有一定的可比性,未来随着经营模式与业务流程的改善,收入潜力巨大。

2009年广州地铁将通往白云机场,交通的便利化使得在机场开设大型的OUTLET成为可能,租金水平即使按照100元/平米计算,也可以为公司带来2亿以上的租金收入。当然这只是我们的设想,未来白云机场的商业如何规划经营仍要依靠管理者进行研究和决策。

白云机场集团曾在2006年中提出过建设航空城的计划,虽然在目前这还只是规划,但我们相信到2009年之后,白云机场的客流量接近4000万,有关机场商业价值开发将会逐步提上日程,潜在价值将得到逐步挖掘。

4、估值与风险分析

(1)满负荷业绩预测

盈利预测假设:

①根据我们的预测,采用乐观方案,白云机场将在2010年达到饱和,而采用保守方案,机场也将在2011年基本饱和。

②营运成本方面,我们假设2008年后每年EBITDA Margin提升1个百分点左右,到基本饱和后的Margin为56%左右,这比首都机场2002年的水平低3个百分点,相对保守。

③另外我们假设FeDex在2009年为公司带来1亿的新增起降收入。

满负荷情况下的盈利预测

④满负荷后仍然有20%的盈利成长空间

正如我们前文所描述,我们对白云满负荷运转的盈利测算中没有包含FeDex入驻带来的货运业务以及商业发展空间的价值。按照我们前面的讨论,两者可以在不增加基础设施的条件下创造约5亿的收入,至少可以带来2亿以上的盈利。对应了20%的盈利增长空间。

(2)PE水平确定

①白云机场长期规划是目前吞吐量的3倍以上

2010年之后,白云机场还将继续进行2号航站楼建设,二号航站楼建成后,白云机场航站楼将达到100万平方米,提供约165个机位,满足年旅客吞吐量7500万人次。远期更规划有5条跑道,可满足年旅客吞吐量9500万人次、年货物吞吐量超过600万吨的要求,是目前的3倍以上。

②集团先行建设,完成后转让的模式对公司盈利应有正面影响

虽然这些远期增长的价值很大程度取决于扩建项目的造价以及投资回报率,但是目前白云机场的采取的运营模式仍然是集团先行建设,完工投入后再转让给上市公司,这种方式下,资产的置入通常对业绩有所增厚,从首都机场和上海机场的扩建情况看,只要对盈利没有摊薄的压力,面临扩建的机场的定价基本也在25倍以上。

③采用满负荷后18倍PE定价,并贴现到目前

考虑到机场运营的低风险性以及潜在的增长空间,我们按照2010年的盈利预测,以18倍PE定价(如果假设新增资本支出回报率与股权成本一致,则这个定价相当于5.5%的派息回报率)并按照8%的贴现率贴现到2007年,白云机场的合理定价在16.5元左右。如果采用保守假设,则机场到2011年达到满负荷,贴现到目前的合理定价为15.3元。

白云机场估值单位:元/股

④估值结论——合理价值15.9元

我们关于保守和乐观的假设主要基于南航在白云机场枢纽化建设是否能在07年内为白云机场带来30%的新增航班量,假设此事件概率为50%,则公司合理定价为15.9元。

(3)风险因素

①风险之一:国内机场收费标准调整

国内机场收费标准调整在2006年颁布第二稿,对白云机场来说,影响体现在这样几个方面,总体影响在3200万左右,对应税后盈利2300万,每股收益下降2分钱。不过我们也看到有更加悲观的测算,认为影响将在6000万以上,对应每股收益6分钱。

1)旅客服务收入:从45下调到40,但是征收标准从65%客座率改为按实际人数征收,假设客座率水平有70%,实际影响应该在4.5%左右,2005年旅客服务费为3.7亿,该调整将降低收入1600万左右。

2)内航起降费:白云机场的起降以中型飞机为主,此次调整对中型飞机的下调幅度为5%左右,假设总体影响有10%,考虑到内航外线的提升影响,我们认为该调整对国内起降费收入影响在8%以内。2005年影响为1600万左右。

3)外航起降费:虽然方案外航起降费降低达到40%左右,但是新规定中原来属于空管的50%起降费划给机场,因此实际并没有影响。

不过我们认为,民航总局此次的方案比较倾向于航空公司,与上次比较倾向与机场的方案形成了对比,此方案会造成许多中小机场更加严重的亏损,相信最终实施的方案仍然会有所调整。

②风险之二:2010年之后的机场建设费征收办法目前白云的收入中包含50%的机场建设费,到2010年后,机场建设费是否征收没有明确的说法,但是我们认为通过建设费或者机场税等方式向旅客征收一定额度的费用,补贴机场收入是各国机场通行的做法,目前机场已经划归地方财政,而按照规划,未来白云机场建设投资需求巨大,到2010年之后,基础设施趋于饱和,面临大规模扩建,因此我们认为完全取消该收入的可能性不大。

Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (1)

徐向东《中国上市机场财务数据研究》(二)

徐向东《中国上市机场财务数据研究》(三)

Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (4)

Serial to be continued...